Accuracy of the forecasts
Share of meetings where the most likely scenario actually happened, depending on how long before the meeting you ask. Only 3 meetings have been evaluated so far; single misses still move these shares a lot.
1 day before
100%
3 of 3 meetings · avg. confidence 92%
1 week before
100%
3 of 3 meetings · avg. confidence 90%
1 month before
67%
2 of 3 meetings · avg. confidence 86%
3 months before
67%
2 of 3 meetings · avg. confidence 63%