What does “84% for unchanged” mean?
Interest-rate futures prices reveal how much of a rate change the market has priced in. 84% for unchanged means current prices are consistent with an 84% probability that the deposit rate stays where it is. It is a market expectation, not a forecast by 25bp and not a statement by the ECB.
Why the deposit facility rate and not “the policy rate”?
The ECB has three policy rates. The deposit facility rate has for years been the one that money-market and savings rates actually track. When media say “the ECB rate”, they usually mean this one.
Where does the data come from?
From the prices of ECB-dated €STR futures, the official ECB meeting calendar and the official policy-rate series of the ECB Data Portal. The calculation is fully disclosed on the methodology page.
How often is it updated?
Twice per trading day: in the morning with the previous day’s settlement prices, in the evening with a preliminary close. The data date is shown on every page.
How reliable are the probabilities?
Usually very close to the mark shortly before a meeting, much less so many months out. How large the gap is can be seen under “Forecast vs. reality”: every past expectation is laid over the actual rate path, together with the hit rate by lead time.
Is this investment advice?
No. 25bp presents market prices in an accessible form. There are no recommendations, no forecasts, and no affiliation with the ECB or any bank.