How often were markets wrong?

3.00%3.50%4.00%4.50%5.00%5.50%6.00%Sep 2024Mar 2025Sep 2025Mar 2026Sep 2026Mar 2027Sep 2027Earlier expectationsActual pathCurrently expected rate path

Accuracy of the forecasts

Share of meetings where the most likely scenario actually happened, depending on how long before the meeting you ask.

1 day before
100%
12 of 12 meetings · avg. confidence 94%
1 week before
91%
10 of 11 meetings · avg. confidence 95%
1 month before
92%
11 of 12 meetings · avg. confidence 80%
3 months before
20%
1 of 5 meetings · avg. confidence 51%