How often were markets wrong?

3.25%3.50%3.75%4.00%4.25%4.50%4.75%5.00%5.25%Nov 2024May 2025Nov 2025May 2026Nov 2026May 2027Nov 2027Earlier expectationsActual pathCurrently expected rate path

Accuracy of the forecasts

Share of meetings where the most likely scenario actually happened, depending on how long before the meeting you ask.

1 day before
100%
18 of 18 meetings · avg. confidence 94%
1 week before
94%
16 of 17 meetings · avg. confidence 92%
1 month before
94%
16 of 17 meetings · avg. confidence 82%
3 months before
50%
5 of 10 meetings · avg. confidence 60%