Accuracy of the forecasts
Share of meetings where the most likely scenario actually happened, depending on how long before the meeting you ask. Only 4 meetings have been evaluated so far; single misses still move these shares a lot.
1 day before
100%
4 of 4 meetings · avg. confidence 94%
1 week before
100%
4 of 4 meetings · avg. confidence 92%
1 month before
75%
3 of 4 meetings · avg. confidence 88%
3 months before
50%
2 of 4 meetings · avg. confidence 62%