Expectations for the next five meetings
| Meeting | 3.50–3.75%current range | 3.75–4.00%+25 bp | 4.00–4.25%+50 bp | 4.25–4.50%+75 bp | 4.50–4.75%+100 bp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 September 2026in 29 days | 61% | 39% | — | — | — |
| 28 October 2026in 71 days | 49% | 43% | 8% | — | — |
| 9 December 2026in 113 days | 28% | 46% | 23% | 3% | — |
| 27 January 2027in 162 days | 23% | 42% | 27% | 7% | — |
| 17 March 2027in 211 days | 17% | 37% | 31% | 13% | 2% |
Calculated from futures prices, as of 18 August 2026
How often were markets wrong?
Just before a meeting, markets are almost always right; months out, far less often. The comparison with the actual rate path shows how big that gap really is.
To the review →The 16 September 2026 meeting
How the expectation for this date has shifted over recent weeks, and which rate level could still be likely.
To the detail page →The expected rate path
The rate path markets expect over the coming months.
To the rate path →European Central Bank · Governing Council
Markets put 95% odds on a hike of the deposit rate to 2.50%.
To the ECB area →| Meeting | 2.25%current rate | 2.50%+25 bp | 2.75%+50 bp |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 September 2026in 23 days | 5% | 95% | — |
| 29 October 2026in 72 days | 4% | 73% | 23% |
Methodology
Eight times a year, the FOMC decides on the target range for the fed funds rate, currently 3.50–3.75%. What it sets is not a single number but a 25 basis point range within which the overnight rate is meant to trade. What is plotted here is the market expectation for the coming decisions.
That expectation can be read off the prices of 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Anyone buying or selling one commits to a rate and puts their own money behind it.
Unlike in Europe, such a contract covers no meeting period but a calendar month: it settles on the average overnight rate across that month. A month containing a decision therefore blends the level before it and the level after, weighted by days.
The decision can be backed out because four months a year carry no meeting. Their average is a fixed rate level and serves the neighbouring month as an anchor. CME’s FedWatch tool works on the same principle. Full methodology →
Forecasts like these are about as reliable as a weather report: mostly on the mark in the short run, increasingly uncertain the further out you look, because unforeseen events can shift the expectation at any time. How accurate they have been so far is shown in forecast vs. reality — for the Fed that record starts later than for the ECB, because the price history here is shorter.