The expected rate path

Each point is the probability-weighted deposit rate after a meeting.

3.60%3.80%4.00%4.20%4.40%4.60%4.80%5.00%5.20%Aug 2026Nov 2026Feb 2027May 2027Aug 2027Nov 2027Earlier expectationsActual pathCurrently expected rate path4.05%4.05%4.25%4.25%4.35%4.35%4.54%4.54%4.64%4.64%4.75%4.75%4.80%4.80%4.85%4.85%4.86%4.86%4.84%4.84%

Expected upper bound of the target range per meeting

MeetingNow5 Oct 261 week ago28 Sep 261 month ago5 Sep 263 months ago5 Jul 26
28 October 20264.05%4.18%3.96%—
9 December 20264.25%4.38%4.09%—
27 January 20274.35%4.52%4.15%—
17 March 20274.54%4.71%4.25%—
28 April 20274.64%4.81%4.28%—
9 June 20274.75%4.91%4.33%—
28 July 20274.80%4.94%4.34%—
15 September 20274.85%4.97%4.35%—
27 October 20274.86%4.98%4.35%—
8 December 20274.84%———