25bp
DEEN

The day before, markets priced 81% for a hold. The ECB held.

Averaged over all scenarios, the rate comes to 2.05%.

How the expectation has shifted

0%25%50%75%100%3 months earlier (29 Jan 26): 3% — 1.75%1.75%3 months earlier (29 Jan 26): 97% — 2.00%97%1 month earlier (27 Mar 26): 13% — 2.00%13%1 week earlier (22 Apr 26): 83% — 2.00%83%day before meeting (29 Apr 26): 81% — 2.00%81%2.00%1 month earlier (27 Mar 26): 87% — 2.25%87%1 week earlier (22 Apr 26): 17% — 2.25%17%day before meeting (29 Apr 26): 19% — 2.25%19%2.25%3 months earlier (29 Jan 26)1 month earlier (27 Mar 26)1 week earlier (22 Apr 26)day before meeting (29 Apr 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%no changeMarAprMay2.00%2.00%81%81%2.25%2.25%19%19%1.75%1.75%3%3%