25bp
DEEN

Markets put a 46% probability on a hike of the deposit rate to 2.75%.

Most likely rate
2.75%
46% · +50 bp · prev. session 43%
Expected rate
2.69%
averaged over all scenarios
Deposit rate now
2.25%
since 17 Jun 2026

Four reference dates compared

The same meeting, seen from four reference dates. The second to last group is the previous trading session.

0%25%50%75%100%1 month earlier (15 Jul 26): 6% — 2.25%1 week earlier (7 Aug 26): 6% — 2.25%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 4% — 2.25%Now (14 Aug 26): 2% — 2.25%2.25%1 month earlier (15 Jul 26): 37% — 2.50%37%1 week earlier (7 Aug 26): 43% — 2.50%43%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 40% — 2.50%40%Now (14 Aug 26): 37% — 2.50%37%2.50%1 month earlier (15 Jul 26): 40% — 2.75%40%1 week earlier (7 Aug 26): 40% — 2.75%40%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 43% — 2.75%43%Now (14 Aug 26): 46% — 2.75%46%2.75%1 month earlier (15 Jul 26): 15% — 3.00%15%1 week earlier (7 Aug 26): 10% — 3.00%10%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 12% — 3.00%12%Now (14 Aug 26): 14% — 3.00%14%3.00%1 month earlier (15 Jul 26): 2% — 3.25%1 week earlier (7 Aug 26): 1% — 3.25%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 1% — 3.25%Now (14 Aug 26): 1% — 3.25%3.25%1 month earlier (15 Jul 26)1 week earlier (7 Aug 26)Previous session (13 Aug 26)Now (14 Aug 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%no changeAug2.75%2.75%46%46%2.50%2.50%37%37%3.00%3.00%14%14%2.25%2.25%2%2%3.25%3.25%1%1%