25bp
DEEN

Markets put a 44% probability on a hike of the deposit rate to 2.75%.

Most likely rate
2.75%
44% · +50 bp · prev. session 42%
Expected rate
2.75%
averaged over all scenarios
Deposit rate now
2.25%
since 17 Jun 2026

Three reference dates compared

The same meeting, seen from three reference dates. The second to last group is the previous trading session.

0%25%50%75%100%1 week earlier (7 Aug 26): 5% — 2.25%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 3% — 2.25%Now (14 Aug 26): 2% — 2.25%2.25%1 week earlier (7 Aug 26): 34% — 2.50%34%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 32% — 2.50%32%Now (14 Aug 26): 28% — 2.50%28%2.50%1 week earlier (7 Aug 26): 41% — 2.75%41%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 42% — 2.75%42%Now (14 Aug 26): 44% — 2.75%44%2.75%1 week earlier (7 Aug 26): 17% — 3.00%17%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 19% — 3.00%19%Now (14 Aug 26): 22% — 3.00%22%3.00%1 week earlier (7 Aug 26): 3% — 3.25%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 3% — 3.25%Now (14 Aug 26): 4% — 3.25%3.25%3.50%1 week earlier (7 Aug 26)Previous session (13 Aug 26)Now (14 Aug 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%Aug2.75%2.75%44%44%2.50%2.50%28%28%3.00%3.00%22%22%3.25%3.25%4%4%2.25%2.25%2%2%