25bp
DEEN

Markets put a 78% probability on a hike of the deposit rate to 2.50%.

Most likely rate
2.50%
78% · +25 bp · prev. session 77%
Expected rate
2.53%
averaged over all scenarios
Deposit rate now
2.25%
since 17 Jun 2026

Five reference dates compared

The same meeting, seen from five reference dates. The second to last group is the previous trading session.

0%25%50%75%100%3 months earlier (15 May 26): 1% — 2.25%1 month earlier (15 Jul 26): 11% — 2.25%11%1 week earlier (7 Aug 26): 12% — 2.25%12%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 8% — 2.25%8%Now (14 Aug 26): 5% — 2.25%2.25%3 months earlier (15 May 26): 9% — 2.50%9%1 month earlier (15 Jul 26): 61% — 2.50%61%1 week earlier (7 Aug 26): 75% — 2.50%75%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 77% — 2.50%77%Now (14 Aug 26): 78% — 2.50%78%2.50%3 months earlier (15 May 26): 33% — 2.75%33%1 month earlier (15 Jul 26): 27% — 2.75%27%1 week earlier (7 Aug 26): 13% — 2.75%13%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 14% — 2.75%14%Now (14 Aug 26): 17% — 2.75%17%2.75%3 months earlier (15 May 26): 41% — 3.00%41%1 month earlier (15 Jul 26): 2% — 3.00%3.00%3 months earlier (15 May 26): 16% — 3.25%16%3.25%3 months earlier (15 May 26)1 month earlier (15 Jul 26)1 week earlier (7 Aug 26)Previous session (13 Aug 26)Now (14 Aug 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%+25 bpno changeJunJulAug2.50%2.50%78%78%2.75%2.75%17%17%3.25%3.25%8%8%2.25%2.25%5%5%3.00%3.00%2%2%