Expectations for the next meetings
| Meeting | 2.50%current rate | 2.75%+25 bp | 3.00%+50 bp | 3.25%+75 bp | 3.50%+100 bp | 3.75%+125 bp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 October 2026in 24 days | 84% | 16% | — | — | — | — |
| 17 December 2026in 73 days | 27% | 62% | 11% | — | — | — |
| 4 February 2027in 122 days | 10% | 40% | 43% | 7% | — | — |
| 18 March 2027in 164 days | 3% | 18% | 41% | 33% | 5% | — |
| 29 April 2027in 206 days | 2% | 14% | 35% | 35% | 13% | 1% |
Calculated from futures prices, as of 5 October 2026
How often were markets wrong?
Just before a meeting, markets are almost always right; months out, far less often. The comparison with the actual rate path shows how big that gap really is.
To the review →The 29 October 2026 meeting
How the expectation for this date has shifted over recent weeks, and which rate level could still be likely.
To the detail page →The expected rate path
The rate path markets expect over the coming months.
To the rate path →Federal Reserve · FOMC
Markets put 79% odds on the Fed target range staying at 3.75–4.00%.
| Meeting | 3.75–4.00%current range | 4.00–4.25%+25 bp | 4.25–4.50%+50 bp |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 October 2026in 23 days | 79% | 21% | — |
| 9 December 2026in 65 days | 17% | 67% | 17% |
Methodology
Eight times a year, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank decides on policy rates. This page shows the deposit facility rate, currently 2.50%, the most important of the three, because overnight and money-market rates follow it. What is plotted is the market expectation for the coming meetings.
That expectation sits in the prices of futures on €STR, the euro overnight rate. Anyone buying or selling one commits to a rate and puts their own money behind it.
Each of those contracts covers the period between two Governing Council meetings. The price difference between the contract before and the one after a meeting therefore shows how much of a rate change the market has priced in for that specific meeting.
Divided by the usual step size of 25 basis points, that yields the probability of a move. For later meetings, the distributions of all meetings in between are chained together. Full methodology →
Forecasts like these are about as reliable as a weather report: mostly on the mark in the short run, increasingly uncertain the further out you look, because unforeseen events can shift the expectation at any time. How accurate they have been so far is shown in forecast vs. reality, where every past expectation sits next to the actual rate path.