25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

Markets put 73% odds on a hike of the deposit rate to 2.50%.

How the expectation has shifted

0%25%50%75%100%3 months earlier (18 May 26): 1% — 2.25%1 month earlier (17 Jul 26): 10% — 2.25%10%1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 7% — 2.25%Previous session (17 Aug 26): 5% — 2.25%Now (18 Aug 26): 4% — 2.25%2.25%3 months earlier (18 May 26): 11% — 2.50%11%1 month earlier (17 Jul 26): 57% — 2.50%57%1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 76% — 2.50%76%Previous session (17 Aug 26): 78% — 2.50%78%Now (18 Aug 26): 73% — 2.50%73%2.50%3 months earlier (18 May 26): 35% — 2.75%35%1 month earlier (17 Jul 26): 30% — 2.75%30%1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 16% — 2.75%16%Previous session (17 Aug 26): 17% — 2.75%17%Now (18 Aug 26): 23% — 2.75%23%2.75%3 months earlier (18 May 26): 39% — 3.00%39%1 month earlier (17 Jul 26): 2% — 3.00%3.00%3 months earlier (18 May 26): 14% — 3.25%14%3.25%3 months earlier (18 May 26)1 month earlier (17 Jul 26)1 week earlier (11 Aug 26)Previous session (17 Aug 26)Now (18 Aug 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%+25 bpno changeJunJulAug2.50%2.50%73%73%2.75%2.75%23%23%3.25%3.25%8%8%2.25%2.25%4%4%3.00%3.00%2%2%