25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

The expected rate path

Each point is the probability-weighted deposit rate after a meeting.

2.20%2.30%2.40%2.50%2.60%2.70%2.80%2.90%3.00%Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026Dec 2026Feb 2027Apr 2027Earlier expectationsActual pathCurrently expected rate path2.49%2.49%2.54%2.54%2.68%2.68%2.73%2.73%2.79%2.79%

Expected deposit rate per meeting

MeetingNow19 Aug 261 week ago12 Aug 261 month ago19 Jul 263 months ago19 May 26
10 September 20262.49%2.48%2.48%2.77%
29 October 20262.54%2.52%2.56%2.87%
17 December 20262.68%2.64%2.69%—
4 February 20272.73%2.69%2.73%—
18 March 20272.79%2.75%——