25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

The expected rate path

Each point is the probability-weighted deposit rate after a meeting.

2.20%2.40%2.60%2.80%3.00%3.20%3.40%Aug 2026Oct 2026Dec 2026Feb 2027Apr 2027Jun 2027Earlier expectationsActual pathCurrently expected rate path2.53%2.53%2.75%2.75%2.85%2.85%3.01%3.01%3.08%3.08%

Expected deposit rate per meeting

MeetingNow14 Oct 261 week ago7 Oct 261 month ago14 Sep 263 months ago14 Jul 26
29 October 20262.53%2.53%2.69%2.56%
17 December 20262.75%2.71%2.92%2.65%
4 February 20272.85%2.81%3.06%2.68%
18 March 20273.01%2.97%3.23%—
29 April 20273.08%3.02%——