25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

The expected rate path

Each point is the probability-weighted deposit rate after a meeting.

2.20%2.40%2.60%2.80%3.00%3.20%3.40%Aug 2026Oct 2026Dec 2026Feb 2027Apr 2027Jun 2027Earlier expectationsActual pathCurrently expected rate path2.54%2.54%2.71%2.71%2.87%2.87%3.05%3.05%3.12%3.12%

Expected deposit rate per meeting

MeetingNow5 Oct 261 week ago28 Sep 261 month ago5 Sep 263 months ago5 Jul 26
29 October 20262.54%2.59%2.56%2.41%
17 December 20262.71%2.83%2.70%2.45%
4 February 20272.87%2.98%2.77%2.47%
18 March 20273.05%3.18%2.87%—
29 April 20273.12%3.28%——