25bp
DEEN

The day before, markets priced 100% for a hike to 2.50%. The ECB hiked to 2.25%.

Most likely rate
2.50%
100% · +25 bp
Expected rate
2.50%
averaged over all scenarios
Deposit rate then
2.25%
since 30 Apr 2026

Four reference dates compared

The same meeting, seen from four reference dates.

0%25%50%75%100%3 months earlier (10 Mar 26): 64% — 2.00%64%2.00%3 months earlier (10 Mar 26): 33% — 2.25%33%1 month earlier (8 May 26): 22% — 2.25%22%1 week earlier (3 Jun 26): 2% — 2.25%2.25%3 months earlier (10 Mar 26): 3% — 2.50%1 month earlier (8 May 26): 78% — 2.50%78%1 week earlier (3 Jun 26): 98% — 2.50%98%day before meeting (10 Jun 26): 100% — 2.50%100%2.50%3 months earlier (10 Mar 26)1 month earlier (8 May 26)1 week earlier (3 Jun 26)day before meeting (10 Jun 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%no change+25 bpAprMayJun2.50%2.50%100%100%2.00%2.00%5%5%2.25%2.25%1%1%2.75%2.75%1%1%