25bp
DEEN

The day before, markets priced 95% for a hold. The ECB held.

Most likely rate
2.25%
95% · Unchanged
Expected rate
2.26%
averaged over all scenarios
Deposit rate then
2.25%
since 17 Jun 2026

Four reference dates compared

The same meeting, seen from four reference dates.

0%25%50%75%100%3 months earlier (22 Apr 26): 14% — 2.00%14%2.00%3 months earlier (22 Apr 26): 44% — 2.25%44%1 month earlier (22 Jun 26): 89% — 2.25%89%1 week earlier (15 Jul 26): 93% — 2.25%93%day before meeting (22 Jul 26): 95% — 2.25%95%2.25%3 months earlier (22 Apr 26): 37% — 2.50%37%1 month earlier (22 Jun 26): 11% — 2.50%11%1 week earlier (15 Jul 26): 7% — 2.50%day before meeting (22 Jul 26): 5% — 2.50%2.50%3 months earlier (22 Apr 26): 6% — 2.75%2.75%3 months earlier (22 Apr 26)1 month earlier (22 Jun 26)1 week earlier (15 Jul 26)day before meeting (22 Jul 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%no change+25 bpno changeMayJunJul2.25%2.25%95%95%2.75%2.75%41%41%2.50%2.50%5%5%