25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

Markets put 40% odds on a hike of the deposit rate to 3.00%.

How the expectation has shifted

0%25%50%75%100%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 4% — 2.50%Previous session (8 Oct 26): 3% — 2.50%Now (9 Oct 26): 2% — 2.50%2.50%current1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 23% — 2.75%Previous session (8 Oct 26): 20% — 2.75%Now (9 Oct 26): 17% — 2.75%17%2.75%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 40% — 3.00%Previous session (8 Oct 26): 39% — 3.00%Now (9 Oct 26): 40% — 3.00%40%3.00%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 26% — 3.25%Previous session (8 Oct 26): 29% — 3.25%Now (9 Oct 26): 31% — 3.25%31%3.25%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 7% — 3.50%Previous session (8 Oct 26): 8% — 3.50%Now (9 Oct 26): 9% — 3.50%9%3.50%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 1% — 3.75%Previous session (8 Oct 26): 1% — 3.75%Now (9 Oct 26): 1% — 3.75%3.75%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26)Previous session (8 Oct 26)Now (9 Oct 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%Oct3.00%3.00%40%40%3.25%3.25%29%29%2.75%2.75%20%20%3.50%3.50%8%8%2.50%2.50%3%3%current3.75%3.75%1%1%