25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

Markets put 35% odds on a hike of the deposit rate to 3.25%.

How the expectation has shifted

0%25%50%75%100%Previous session (30 Sep 26): 1% — 2.50%Now (1 Oct 26): 2% — 2.50%2.50%current1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 4% — 2.75%Previous session (30 Sep 26): 8% — 2.75%Now (1 Oct 26): 14% — 2.75%14%2.75%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 21% — 3.00%Previous session (30 Sep 26): 29% — 3.00%Now (1 Oct 26): 35% — 3.00%35%3.00%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 39% — 3.25%Previous session (30 Sep 26): 39% — 3.25%Now (1 Oct 26): 35% — 3.25%35%3.25%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 28% — 3.50%Previous session (30 Sep 26): 20% — 3.50%Now (1 Oct 26): 13% — 3.50%13%3.50%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 7% — 3.75%Previous session (30 Sep 26): 4% — 3.75%Now (1 Oct 26): 1% — 3.75%3.75%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26)Previous session (30 Sep 26)Now (1 Oct 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%Oct3.25%3.25%35%35%3.00%3.00%35%35%2.75%2.75%14%14%3.50%3.50%13%13%3.75%3.75%1%1%