25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

Markets put 46% odds on a hike of the deposit rate to 3.00%.

How the expectation has shifted

0%25%50%75%100%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 6% — 2.50%Previous session (8 Oct 26): 4% — 2.50%Now (9 Oct 26): 3% — 2.50%2.50%current1 month earlier (14 Sep 26): 5% — 2.75%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 28% — 2.75%Previous session (8 Oct 26): 25% — 2.75%Now (9 Oct 26): 23% — 2.75%23%2.75%1 month earlier (14 Sep 26): 24% — 3.00%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 43% — 3.00%Previous session (8 Oct 26): 45% — 3.00%Now (9 Oct 26): 46% — 3.00%46%3.00%1 month earlier (14 Sep 26): 43% — 3.25%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 21% — 3.25%Previous session (8 Oct 26): 23% — 3.25%Now (9 Oct 26): 26% — 3.25%26%3.25%1 month earlier (14 Sep 26): 27% — 3.50%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 2% — 3.50%Previous session (8 Oct 26): 3% — 3.50%Now (9 Oct 26): 3% — 3.50%3.50%1 month earlier (14 Sep 26): 1% — 3.75%3.75%1 month earlier (14 Sep 26)1 week earlier (7 Oct 26)Previous session (8 Oct 26)Now (9 Oct 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%+25 bpAugSepOct3.00%3.00%45%45%2.75%2.75%26%26%3.25%3.25%23%23%2.50%2.50%4%4%current3.50%3.50%2%2%2.25%2.25%0%0%