25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

Markets put 41% odds on a hike of the deposit rate to 3.00%.

How the expectation has shifted

0%25%50%75%100%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 14% — 2.50%Previous session (30 Sep 26): 1% — 2.50%Now (1 Oct 26): 3% — 2.50%2.50%current1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 39% — 2.75%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 7% — 2.75%Previous session (30 Sep 26): 11% — 2.75%Now (1 Oct 26): 18% — 2.75%18%2.75%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 35% — 3.00%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 32% — 3.00%Previous session (30 Sep 26): 39% — 3.00%Now (1 Oct 26): 41% — 3.00%41%3.00%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 12% — 3.25%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 45% — 3.25%Previous session (30 Sep 26): 39% — 3.25%Now (1 Oct 26): 33% — 3.25%33%3.25%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 1% — 3.50%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 17% — 3.50%Previous session (30 Sep 26): 10% — 3.50%Now (1 Oct 26): 5% — 3.50%3.50%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26)1 week earlier (28 Sep 26)Previous session (30 Sep 26)Now (1 Oct 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%+25 bpAugSepOct3.25%3.25%40%40%3.00%3.00%39%39%2.75%2.75%12%12%3.50%3.50%7%7%2.50%2.50%1%1%current2.25%2.25%0%0%