ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Deposit rate
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 18 August 2026
Markets put
43%
odds on a hike of the deposit rate to
2.75%
.
Choose meeting
30 Apr 26
hold
11 Jun 26
+25 bp
23 Jul 26
hold
today
10 Sep 26
2.50% · 95%
29 Oct 26
2.50% · 73%
17 Dec 26
2.75% · 48%
4 Feb 27
2.75% · 46%
18 Mar 27
2.75% · 43%
all dates →
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 3% — 2.25%
Previous session (13 Aug 26): 3% — 2.25%
Now (14 Aug 26): 1% — 2.25%
2.25%
1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 30% — 2.50%
30%
Previous session (13 Aug 26): 32% — 2.50%
32%
Now (14 Aug 26): 26% — 2.50%
26%
2.50%
1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 42% — 2.75%
42%
Previous session (13 Aug 26): 42% — 2.75%
42%
Now (14 Aug 26): 43% — 2.75%
43%
2.75%
1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 20% — 3.00%
20%
Previous session (13 Aug 26): 19% — 3.00%
19%
Now (14 Aug 26): 24% — 3.00%
24%
3.00%
1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 4% — 3.25%
Previous session (13 Aug 26): 3% — 3.25%
Now (14 Aug 26): 5% — 3.25%
3.25%
3.50%
1 week earlier (11 Aug 26)
Previous session (13 Aug 26)
Now (14 Aug 26)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Aug
2.75%
2.75%
44%
44%
2.50%
2.50%
28%
28%
3.00%
3.00%
22%
22%
3.25%
3.25%
4%
4%
2.25%
2.25%
2%
2%
