25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

Markets put 43% odds on a hike of the deposit rate to 3.00%.

How the expectation has shifted

0%25%50%75%100%3 months earlier (3 Jul 26): 33% — 2.25%2.25%3 months earlier (3 Jul 26): 47% — 2.50%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 24% — 2.50%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 1% — 2.50%Previous session (30 Sep 26): 3% — 2.50%Now (1 Oct 26): 10% — 2.50%10%2.50%current3 months earlier (3 Jul 26): 17% — 2.75%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 50% — 2.75%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 26% — 2.75%Previous session (30 Sep 26): 36% — 2.75%Now (1 Oct 26): 40% — 2.75%40%2.75%3 months earlier (3 Jul 26): 2% — 3.00%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 23% — 3.00%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 51% — 3.00%Previous session (30 Sep 26): 48% — 3.00%Now (1 Oct 26): 43% — 3.00%43%3.00%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 3% — 3.25%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 21% — 3.25%Previous session (30 Sep 26): 14% — 3.25%Now (1 Oct 26): 7% — 3.25%3.25%3 months earlier (3 Jul 26)1 month earlier (4 Sep 26)1 week earlier (28 Sep 26)Previous session (30 Sep 26)Now (1 Oct 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%no change+25 bpAugSepOct3.00%3.00%52%52%2.75%2.75%34%34%3.25%3.25%10%10%2.50%2.50%4%4%current2.25%2.25%0%0%