25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

Markets put 46% odds on a hike of the deposit rate to 2.75%.

How the expectation has shifted

0%25%50%75%100%1 month earlier (17 Jul 26): 4% — 2.25%1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 3% — 2.25%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 4% — 2.25%Now (14 Aug 26): 2% — 2.25%2.25%1 month earlier (17 Jul 26): 28% — 2.50%28%1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 39% — 2.50%39%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 40% — 2.50%40%Now (14 Aug 26): 33% — 2.50%33%2.50%1 month earlier (17 Jul 26): 42% — 2.75%42%1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 43% — 2.75%43%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 43% — 2.75%43%Now (14 Aug 26): 46% — 2.75%46%2.75%1 month earlier (17 Jul 26): 22% — 3.00%22%1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 13% — 3.00%13%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 12% — 3.00%12%Now (14 Aug 26): 17% — 3.00%17%3.00%1 month earlier (17 Jul 26): 4% — 3.25%1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 1% — 3.25%Previous session (13 Aug 26): 1% — 3.25%Now (14 Aug 26): 2% — 3.25%3.25%1 month earlier (17 Jul 26)1 week earlier (11 Aug 26)Previous session (13 Aug 26)Now (14 Aug 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%no changeAug2.75%2.75%46%46%2.50%2.50%37%37%3.00%3.00%14%14%2.25%2.25%2%2%3.25%3.25%1%1%