25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

Markets put 48% odds on a hike of the deposit rate to 2.75%.

How the expectation has shifted

0%25%50%75%100%1 month earlier (17 Jul 26): 5% — 2.25%1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 4% — 2.25%Previous session (14 Aug 26): 3% — 2.25%Now (17 Aug 26): 2% — 2.25%2.25%1 month earlier (17 Jul 26): 34% — 2.50%34%1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 46% — 2.50%46%Previous session (14 Aug 26): 43% — 2.50%43%Now (17 Aug 26): 39% — 2.50%39%2.50%1 month earlier (17 Jul 26): 44% — 2.75%44%1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 43% — 2.75%43%Previous session (14 Aug 26): 46% — 2.75%46%Now (17 Aug 26): 48% — 2.75%48%2.75%1 month earlier (17 Jul 26): 16% — 3.00%16%1 week earlier (11 Aug 26): 7% — 3.00%Previous session (14 Aug 26): 8% — 3.00%8%Now (17 Aug 26): 11% — 3.00%11%3.00%1 month earlier (17 Jul 26): 1% — 3.25%3.25%1 month earlier (17 Jul 26)1 week earlier (11 Aug 26)Previous session (14 Aug 26)Now (17 Aug 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%no changeAug2.75%2.75%47%47%2.50%2.50%42%42%3.00%3.00%8%8%2.25%2.25%3%3%