ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Fed target range
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 19 August 2026
Markets put
38%
odds on a hike of the Fed target range to
3.75–4.00%
.
Choose meeting
‹
17 Sep 25
−25 bp
29 Oct 25
−25 bp
10 Dec 25
−25 bp
28 Jan 26
3.50–3.75% · 96%
18 Mar 26
3.50–3.75% · 98%
29 Apr 26
3.50–3.75% · 100%
17 Jun 26
3.50–3.75% · 96%
29 Jul 26
3.50–3.75% · 69%
today
16 Sep 26
3.50–3.75% · 72%
28 Oct 26
3.50–3.75% · 59%
9 Dec 26
3.75–4.00% · 45%
27 Jan 27
3.75–4.00% · 44%
17 Mar 27
3.75–4.00% · 40%
28 Apr 27
3.75–4.00% · 38%
9 Jun 27
3.75–4.00% · 37%
28 Jul 27
3.75–4.00% · 36%
15 Sep 27
3.75–4.00% · 35%
all dates →
›
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Previous session (18 Aug 26): 19% — 3.50–3.75%
19%
Now (19 Aug 26): 20% — 3.50–3.75%
20%
3.50–3.75%
Previous session (18 Aug 26): 38% — 3.75–4.00%
38%
Now (19 Aug 26): 38% — 3.75–4.00%
38%
3.75–4.00%
Previous session (18 Aug 26): 30% — 4.00–4.25%
30%
Now (19 Aug 26): 29% — 4.00–4.25%
29%
4.00–4.25%
Previous session (18 Aug 26): 11% — 4.25–4.50%
11%
Now (19 Aug 26): 11% — 4.25–4.50%
11%
4.25–4.50%
Previous session (18 Aug 26): 2% — 4.50–4.75%
Now (19 Aug 26): 2% — 4.50–4.75%
4.50–4.75%
Previous session (18 Aug 26)
Now (19 Aug 26)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.75–4.00%
3.75–4.00%
38%
38%
4.00–4.25%
4.00–4.25%
29%
29%
3.50–3.75%
3.50–3.75%
20%
20%
4.25–4.50%
4.25–4.50%
11%
11%
