ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Fed target range
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 6 October 2026
Markets put
68%
odds on a hike of the Fed target range to
4.00–4.25%
.
Choose meeting
‹
29 Oct 25
−25 bp
10 Dec 25
−25 bp
28 Jan 26
hold
18 Mar 26
hold
29 Apr 26
hold
17 Jun 26
hold
29 Jul 26
hold
16 Sep 26
+25 bp
today
28 Oct 26
3.75–4.00% · 78%
9 Dec 26
4.00–4.25% · 68%
27 Jan 27
4.00–4.25% · 46%
17 Mar 27
4.25–4.50% · 44%
28 Apr 27
4.50–4.75% · 35%
9 Jun 27
4.50–4.75% · 35%
28 Jul 27
4.50–4.75% · 33%
15 Sep 27
4.50–4.75% · 31%
27 Oct 27
4.50–4.75% · 30%
8 Dec 27
4.50–4.75% · 30%
all dates →
›
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 15% — 3.50–3.75%
3.50–3.75%
1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 42% — 3.75–4.00%
1 week earlier (29 Sep 26): 8% — 3.75–4.00%
Previous session (2 Oct 26): 17% — 3.75–4.00%
Now (5 Oct 26): 14% — 3.75–4.00%
14%
3.75–4.00%
current
1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 35% — 4.00–4.25%
1 week earlier (29 Sep 26): 49% — 4.00–4.25%
Previous session (2 Oct 26): 67% — 4.00–4.25%
Now (5 Oct 26): 68% — 4.00–4.25%
68%
4.00–4.25%
1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 8% — 4.25–4.50%
1 week earlier (29 Sep 26): 43% — 4.25–4.50%
Previous session (2 Oct 26): 17% — 4.25–4.50%
Now (5 Oct 26): 18% — 4.25–4.50%
18%
4.25–4.50%
1 month earlier (4 Sep 26)
1 week earlier (29 Sep 26)
Previous session (2 Oct 26)
Now (5 Oct 26)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
+25 bp
Sep
Oct
4.00–4.25%
4.00–4.25%
68%
68%
4.25–4.50%
4.25–4.50%
18%
18%
3.75–4.00%
3.75–4.00%
14%
14%
current
3.50–3.75%
3.50–3.75%
1%
1%
