ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Fed target range
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 5 October 2026
Markets put
47%
odds on a hike of the Fed target range to
4.00–4.25%
.
Choose meeting
‹
29 Oct 25
−25 bp
10 Dec 25
−25 bp
28 Jan 26
hold
18 Mar 26
hold
29 Apr 26
hold
17 Jun 26
hold
29 Jul 26
hold
16 Sep 26
+25 bp
today
28 Oct 26
3.75–4.00% · 79%
9 Dec 26
4.00–4.25% · 67%
27 Jan 27
4.00–4.25% · 47%
17 Mar 27
4.25–4.50% · 44%
28 Apr 27
4.50–4.75% · 35%
9 Jun 27
4.50–4.75% · 35%
28 Jul 27
4.50–4.75% · 33%
15 Sep 27
4.50–4.75% · 31%
27 Oct 27
4.50–4.75% · 30%
8 Dec 27
4.50–4.75% · 30%
all dates →
›
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 11% — 3.50–3.75%
3.50–3.75%
1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 36% — 3.75–4.00%
1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 2% — 3.75–4.00%
Previous session (1 Oct 26): 11% — 3.75–4.00%
Now (2 Oct 26): 10% — 3.75–4.00%
10%
3.75–4.00%
current
1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 37% — 4.00–4.25%
1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 19% — 4.00–4.25%
Previous session (1 Oct 26): 47% — 4.00–4.25%
Now (2 Oct 26): 47% — 4.00–4.25%
47%
4.00–4.25%
1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 14% — 4.25–4.50%
1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 46% — 4.25–4.50%
Previous session (1 Oct 26): 35% — 4.25–4.50%
Now (2 Oct 26): 36% — 4.25–4.50%
36%
4.25–4.50%
1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 2% — 4.50–4.75%
1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 32% — 4.50–4.75%
Previous session (1 Oct 26): 7% — 4.50–4.75%
Now (2 Oct 26): 6% — 4.50–4.75%
4.50–4.75%
1 month earlier (4 Sep 26)
1 week earlier (28 Sep 26)
Previous session (1 Oct 26)
Now (2 Oct 26)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
+25 bp
Sep
Oct
4.00–4.25%
4.00–4.25%
47%
47%
4.25–4.50%
4.25–4.50%
36%
36%
3.75–4.00%
3.75–4.00%
10%
10%
current
4.50–4.75%
4.50–4.75%
6%
6%
3.50–3.75%
3.50–3.75%
1%
1%
