ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Fed target range
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 18 August 2026
Markets put
42%
odds on a hike of the Fed target range to
3.75–4.00%
.
Choose meeting
16 Sep 26
3.50–3.75% · 61%
28 Oct 26
3.50–3.75% · 49%
9 Dec 26
3.75–4.00% · 46%
27 Jan 27
3.75–4.00% · 42%
17 Mar 27
3.75–4.00% · 37%
28 Apr 27
3.75–4.00% · 35%
9 Jun 27
3.75–4.00% · 33%
28 Jul 27
3.75–4.00% · 33%
15 Sep 27
3.75–4.00% · 33%
all dates →
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.75–4.00%
3.75–4.00%
42%
42%
4.00–4.25%
4.00–4.25%
27%
27%
3.50–3.75%
3.50–3.75%
23%
23%
4.25–4.50%
4.25–4.50%
7%
7%
