25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

Markets put 44% odds on a hike of the Fed target range to 4.25–4.50%.

How the expectation has shifted

0%25%50%75%100%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 7% — 3.50–3.75%3.50–3.75%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 26% — 3.75–4.00%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 1% — 3.75–4.00%Previous session (1 Oct 26): 4% — 3.75–4.00%Now (2 Oct 26): 3% — 3.75–4.00%3.75–4.00%current1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 36% — 4.00–4.25%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 6% — 4.00–4.25%Previous session (1 Oct 26): 23% — 4.00–4.25%Now (2 Oct 26): 19% — 4.00–4.25%19%4.00–4.25%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 23% — 4.25–4.50%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 26% — 4.25–4.50%Previous session (1 Oct 26): 43% — 4.25–4.50%Now (2 Oct 26): 44% — 4.25–4.50%44%4.25–4.50%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 7% — 4.50–4.75%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 43% — 4.50–4.75%Previous session (1 Oct 26): 26% — 4.50–4.75%Now (2 Oct 26): 29% — 4.50–4.75%29%4.50–4.75%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 1% — 4.75–5.00%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 24% — 4.75–5.00%Previous session (1 Oct 26): 5% — 4.75–5.00%Now (2 Oct 26): 5% — 4.75–5.00%4.75–5.00%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26)1 week earlier (28 Sep 26)Previous session (1 Oct 26)Now (2 Oct 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%+25 bpSepOct4.25–4.50%4.25–4.50%44%44%4.50–4.75%4.50–4.75%29%29%4.00–4.25%4.00–4.25%19%19%4.75–5.00%4.75–5.00%5%5%3.75–4.00%3.75–4.00%3%3%current3.50–3.75%3.50–3.75%0%0%