ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Deposit rate
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 18 August 2026
The day before, markets priced
100%
for a hike to 2.50%. The ECB hiked to 2.25%.
Choose meeting
30 Apr 26
hold
11 Jun 26
+25 bp
23 Jul 26
hold
today
10 Sep 26
2.50% · 95%
29 Oct 26
2.50% · 73%
17 Dec 26
2.75% · 48%
4 Feb 27
2.75% · 46%
18 Mar 27
2.75% · 43%
all dates →
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3 months earlier (10 Mar 26): 64% — 2.00%
64%
2.00%
3 months earlier (10 Mar 26): 33% — 2.25%
33%
1 month earlier (8 May 26): 22% — 2.25%
22%
1 week earlier (3 Jun 26): 2% — 2.25%
2.25%
3 months earlier (10 Mar 26): 3% — 2.50%
1 month earlier (8 May 26): 78% — 2.50%
78%
1 week earlier (3 Jun 26): 98% — 2.50%
98%
day before meeting (10 Jun 26): 100% — 2.50%
100%
2.50%
3 months earlier (10 Mar 26)
1 month earlier (8 May 26)
1 week earlier (3 Jun 26)
day before meeting (10 Jun 26)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
no change
+25 bp
Apr
May
Jun
2.50%
2.50%
100%
100%
2.00%
2.00%
5%
5%
2.25%
2.25%
1%
1%
2.75%
2.75%
1%
1%
