ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Deposit rate
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 18 August 2026
The day before, markets priced
95%
for a hold. The ECB held.
Choose meeting
30 Apr 26
hold
11 Jun 26
+25 bp
23 Jul 26
hold
today
10 Sep 26
2.50% · 95%
29 Oct 26
2.50% · 73%
17 Dec 26
2.75% · 48%
4 Feb 27
2.75% · 46%
18 Mar 27
2.75% · 43%
all dates →
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3 months earlier (22 Apr 26): 14% — 2.00%
14%
2.00%
3 months earlier (22 Apr 26): 44% — 2.25%
44%
1 month earlier (22 Jun 26): 89% — 2.25%
89%
1 week earlier (15 Jul 26): 93% — 2.25%
93%
day before meeting (22 Jul 26): 95% — 2.25%
95%
2.25%
3 months earlier (22 Apr 26): 37% — 2.50%
37%
1 month earlier (22 Jun 26): 11% — 2.50%
11%
1 week earlier (15 Jul 26): 7% — 2.50%
day before meeting (22 Jul 26): 5% — 2.50%
2.50%
3 months earlier (22 Apr 26): 6% — 2.75%
2.75%
3 months earlier (22 Apr 26)
1 month earlier (22 Jun 26)
1 week earlier (15 Jul 26)
day before meeting (22 Jul 26)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
no change
+25 bp
no change
May
Jun
Jul
2.25%
2.25%
95%
95%
2.75%
2.75%
41%
41%
2.50%
2.50%
5%
5%
