ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Deposit rate
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 5 October 2026
The day before, markets priced
99%
for a hike to 2.50%. The ECB hiked to 2.50%.
Choose meeting
‹
30 Apr 26
hold
11 Jun 26
+25 bp
23 Jul 26
hold
10 Sep 26
+25 bp
today
29 Oct 26
2.50% · 84%
17 Dec 26
2.75% · 62%
4 Feb 27
3.00% · 43%
18 Mar 27
3.00% · 41%
29 Apr 27
3.25% · 35%
all dates →
›
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3 months earlier (9 Jun 26): 20% — 2.25%
1 month earlier (7 Aug 26): 14% — 2.25%
2.25%
3 months earlier (9 Jun 26): 55% — 2.50%
1 month earlier (7 Aug 26): 86% — 2.50%
1 week earlier (2 Sep 26): 100% — 2.50%
day before meeting (9 Sep 26): 99% — 2.50%
99%
2.50%
result
3 months earlier (9 Jun 26): 25% — 2.75%
day before meeting (9 Sep 26): 1% — 2.75%
2.75%
3 months earlier (9 Jun 26)
1 month earlier (7 Aug 26)
1 week earlier (2 Sep 26)
day before meeting (9 Sep 26)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark ECB rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
no change
+25 bp
Jul
Aug
Sep
2.50%
2.50%
98%
98%
result
2.75%
2.75%
2%
2%
2.25%
2.25%
1%
1%
