25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

Markets put 34% odds on a hike of the Fed target range to 4.50–4.75%.

How the expectation has shifted

0%25%50%75%100%1 month earlier (14 Sep 26): 2% — 3.75–4.00%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 1% — 3.75–4.00%Now (13 Oct 26): 1% — 3.75–4.00%3.75–4.00%current1 month earlier (14 Sep 26): 12% — 4.00–4.25%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 9% — 4.00–4.25%Previous session (12 Oct 26): 6% — 4.00–4.25%Now (13 Oct 26): 7% — 4.00–4.25%4.00–4.25%1 month earlier (14 Sep 26): 26% — 4.25–4.50%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 26% — 4.25–4.50%Previous session (12 Oct 26): 21% — 4.25–4.50%Now (13 Oct 26): 23% — 4.25–4.50%23%4.25–4.50%1 month earlier (14 Sep 26): 31% — 4.50–4.75%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 33% — 4.50–4.75%Previous session (12 Oct 26): 33% — 4.50–4.75%Now (13 Oct 26): 34% — 4.50–4.75%34%4.50–4.75%1 month earlier (14 Sep 26): 20% — 4.75–5.00%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 22% — 4.75–5.00%Previous session (12 Oct 26): 27% — 4.75–5.00%Now (13 Oct 26): 24% — 4.75–5.00%24%4.75–5.00%1 month earlier (14 Sep 26): 7% — 5.00–5.25%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 8% — 5.00–5.25%Previous session (12 Oct 26): 11% — 5.00–5.25%Now (13 Oct 26): 9% — 5.00–5.25%9%5.00–5.25%1 month earlier (14 Sep 26): 1% — 5.25–5.50%1 week earlier (7 Oct 26): 1% — 5.25–5.50%Previous session (12 Oct 26): 2% — 5.25–5.50%Now (13 Oct 26): 2% — 5.25–5.50%5.25–5.50%1 month earlier (14 Sep 26)1 week earlier (7 Oct 26)Previous session (12 Oct 26)Now (13 Oct 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%+25 bpSepOct4.50–4.75%4.50–4.75%34%34%4.75–5.00%4.75–5.00%24%24%4.25–4.50%4.25–4.50%23%23%5.00–5.25%5.00–5.25%9%9%4.00–4.25%4.00–4.25%7%7%5.25–5.50%5.25–5.50%2%2%3.75–4.00%3.75–4.00%1%1%current3.50–3.75%3.50–3.75%0%0%