ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Fed target range
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 1 September 2026
Markets put
31%
odds on a hike of the Fed target range to
4.00–4.25%
.
Choose meeting
‹
17 Sep 25
−25 bp
29 Oct 25
−25 bp
10 Dec 25
−25 bp
28 Jan 26
3.50–3.75% · 96%
18 Mar 26
3.50–3.75% · 98%
29 Apr 26
3.50–3.75% · 100%
17 Jun 26
3.50–3.75% · 96%
29 Jul 26
3.50–3.75% · 69%
today
16 Sep 26
3.75–4.00% · 66%
28 Oct 26
3.75–4.00% · 57%
9 Dec 26
4.00–4.25% · 41%
27 Jan 27
4.00–4.25% · 40%
17 Mar 27
4.00–4.25% · 36%
28 Apr 27
4.00–4.25% · 34%
9 Jun 27
4.00–4.25% · 31%
28 Jul 27
4.00–4.25% · 31%
15 Sep 27
4.00–4.25% · 31%
27 Oct 27
4.00–4.25% · 31%
all dates →
›
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Sep
4.00–4.25%
4.00–4.25%
32%
32%
4.25–4.50%
4.25–4.50%
28%
28%
3.75–4.00%
3.75–4.00%
19%
19%
4.50–4.75%
4.50–4.75%
13%
13%
3.50–3.75%
3.50–3.75%
5%
5%
4.75–5.00%
4.75–5.00%
3%
3%
