25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

Markets put 35% odds on a hike of the Fed target range to 4.50–4.75%.

How the expectation has shifted

0%25%50%75%100%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 5% — 3.50–3.75%3.50–3.75%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 20% — 3.75–4.00%Previous session (2 Oct 26): 1% — 3.75–4.00%Now (5 Oct 26): 1% — 3.75–4.00%3.75–4.00%current1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 33% — 4.00–4.25%1 week earlier (29 Sep 26): 3% — 4.00–4.25%Previous session (2 Oct 26): 7% — 4.00–4.25%Now (5 Oct 26): 8% — 4.00–4.25%4.00–4.25%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 27% — 4.25–4.50%1 week earlier (29 Sep 26): 14% — 4.25–4.50%Previous session (2 Oct 26): 24% — 4.25–4.50%Now (5 Oct 26): 25% — 4.25–4.50%25%4.25–4.50%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 12% — 4.50–4.75%1 week earlier (29 Sep 26): 30% — 4.50–4.75%Previous session (2 Oct 26): 35% — 4.50–4.75%Now (5 Oct 26): 35% — 4.50–4.75%35%4.50–4.75%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 3% — 4.75–5.00%1 week earlier (29 Sep 26): 32% — 4.75–5.00%Previous session (2 Oct 26): 24% — 4.75–5.00%Now (5 Oct 26): 24% — 4.75–5.00%24%4.75–5.00%1 week earlier (29 Sep 26): 17% — 5.00–5.25%Previous session (2 Oct 26): 8% — 5.00–5.25%Now (5 Oct 26): 8% — 5.00–5.25%5.00–5.25%1 week earlier (29 Sep 26): 3% — 5.25–5.50%Previous session (2 Oct 26): 1% — 5.25–5.50%Now (5 Oct 26): 1% — 5.25–5.50%5.25–5.50%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26)1 week earlier (29 Sep 26)Previous session (2 Oct 26)Now (5 Oct 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%+25 bpSepOct4.50–4.75%4.50–4.75%35%35%4.25–4.50%4.25–4.50%25%25%4.75–5.00%4.75–5.00%24%24%5.00–5.25%5.00–5.25%8%8%4.00–4.25%4.00–4.25%8%8%5.25–5.50%5.25–5.50%1%1%3.75–4.00%3.75–4.00%1%1%current3.50–3.75%3.50–3.75%0%0%