25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

Markets put 31% odds on a hike of the Fed target range to 4.50–4.75%.

How the expectation has shifted

0%25%50%75%100%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 4% — 3.50–3.75%3.50–3.75%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 19% — 3.75–4.00%Previous session (1 Oct 26): 1% — 3.75–4.00%Now (2 Oct 26): 1% — 3.75–4.00%3.75–4.00%current1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 32% — 4.00–4.25%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 2% — 4.00–4.25%Previous session (1 Oct 26): 8% — 4.00–4.25%Now (2 Oct 26): 5% — 4.00–4.25%4.00–4.25%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 27% — 4.25–4.50%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 10% — 4.25–4.50%Previous session (1 Oct 26): 22% — 4.25–4.50%Now (2 Oct 26): 18% — 4.25–4.50%18%4.25–4.50%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 13% — 4.50–4.75%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 25% — 4.50–4.75%Previous session (1 Oct 26): 31% — 4.50–4.75%Now (2 Oct 26): 31% — 4.50–4.75%31%4.50–4.75%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 4% — 4.75–5.00%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 32% — 4.75–5.00%Previous session (1 Oct 26): 24% — 4.75–5.00%Now (2 Oct 26): 27% — 4.75–5.00%27%4.75–5.00%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26): 1% — 5.00–5.25%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 22% — 5.00–5.25%Previous session (1 Oct 26): 11% — 5.00–5.25%Now (2 Oct 26): 14% — 5.00–5.25%14%5.00–5.25%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 7% — 5.25–5.50%Previous session (1 Oct 26): 3% — 5.25–5.50%Now (2 Oct 26): 4% — 5.25–5.50%5.25–5.50%1 week earlier (28 Sep 26): 1% — 5.50–5.75%Now (2 Oct 26): 1% — 5.50–5.75%5.50–5.75%1 month earlier (4 Sep 26)1 week earlier (28 Sep 26)Previous session (1 Oct 26)Now (2 Oct 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%+25 bpSepOct4.50–4.75%4.50–4.75%31%31%4.75–5.00%4.75–5.00%27%27%4.25–4.50%4.25–4.50%18%18%5.00–5.25%5.00–5.25%14%14%4.00–4.25%4.00–4.25%5%5%5.25–5.50%5.25–5.50%4%4%3.75–4.00%3.75–4.00%1%1%current3.50–3.75%3.50–3.75%0%0%