ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Fed target range
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 6 October 2026
Markets put
30%
odds on a hike of the Fed target range to
4.50–4.75%
.
Choose meeting
‹
29 Oct 25
−25 bp
10 Dec 25
−25 bp
28 Jan 26
hold
18 Mar 26
hold
29 Apr 26
hold
17 Jun 26
hold
29 Jul 26
hold
16 Sep 26
+25 bp
today
28 Oct 26
3.75–4.00% · 78%
9 Dec 26
4.00–4.25% · 68%
27 Jan 27
4.00–4.25% · 46%
17 Mar 27
4.25–4.50% · 44%
28 Apr 27
4.50–4.75% · 35%
9 Jun 27
4.50–4.75% · 35%
28 Jul 27
4.50–4.75% · 33%
15 Sep 27
4.50–4.75% · 31%
27 Oct 27
4.50–4.75% · 30%
8 Dec 27
4.50–4.75% · 30%
all dates →
›
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Previous session (1 Oct 26): 3% — 3.75–4.00%
Now (2 Oct 26): 1% — 3.75–4.00%
3.75–4.00%
current
Previous session (1 Oct 26): 11% — 4.00–4.25%
Now (2 Oct 26): 7% — 4.00–4.25%
4.00–4.25%
Previous session (1 Oct 26): 23% — 4.25–4.50%
Now (2 Oct 26): 19% — 4.25–4.50%
19%
4.25–4.50%
Previous session (1 Oct 26): 29% — 4.50–4.75%
Now (2 Oct 26): 30% — 4.50–4.75%
30%
4.50–4.75%
Previous session (1 Oct 26): 21% — 4.75–5.00%
Now (2 Oct 26): 26% — 4.75–5.00%
26%
4.75–5.00%
Previous session (1 Oct 26): 10% — 5.00–5.25%
Now (2 Oct 26): 13% — 5.00–5.25%
13%
5.00–5.25%
Previous session (1 Oct 26): 3% — 5.25–5.50%
Now (2 Oct 26): 4% — 5.25–5.50%
5.25–5.50%
Now (2 Oct 26): 1% — 5.50–5.75%
5.50–5.75%
Previous session (1 Oct 26)
Now (2 Oct 26)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Oct
4.50–4.75%
4.50–4.75%
30%
30%
4.75–5.00%
4.75–5.00%
26%
26%
4.25–4.50%
4.25–4.50%
19%
19%
5.00–5.25%
5.00–5.25%
13%
13%
4.00–4.25%
4.00–4.25%
6%
6%
5.25–5.50%
5.25–5.50%
4%
4%
