ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Fed target range
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 19 August 2026
The day before, markets priced
92%
for a cut to 3.50–3.75%. The Fed cut to 3.50–3.75%.
Choose meeting
‹
30 Jul 25
hold
17 Sep 25
−25 bp
29 Oct 25
−25 bp
10 Dec 25
−25 bp
28 Jan 26
3.50–3.75% · 96%
18 Mar 26
3.50–3.75% · 98%
29 Apr 26
3.50–3.75% · 100%
17 Jun 26
3.50–3.75% · 96%
29 Jul 26
3.50–3.75% · 69%
today
16 Sep 26
3.50–3.75% · 72%
28 Oct 26
3.50–3.75% · 59%
9 Dec 26
3.75–4.00% · 45%
27 Jan 27
3.75–4.00% · 44%
17 Mar 27
3.75–4.00% · 40%
28 Apr 27
3.75–4.00% · 38%
9 Jun 27
3.75–4.00% · 37%
28 Jul 27
3.75–4.00% · 36%
15 Sep 27
3.75–4.00% · 35%
all dates →
›
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1 month earlier (7 Nov 25): 66% — 3.50–3.75%
66%
1 week earlier (2 Dec 25): 96% — 3.50–3.75%
96%
day before meeting (9 Dec 25): 92% — 3.50–3.75%
92%
3.50–3.75%
1 month earlier (7 Nov 25): 34% — 3.75–4.00%
34%
1 week earlier (2 Dec 25): 4% — 3.75–4.00%
day before meeting (9 Dec 25): 8% — 3.75–4.00%
8%
3.75–4.00%
1 month earlier (7 Nov 25)
1 week earlier (2 Dec 25)
day before meeting (9 Dec 25)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
−25 bp
−25 bp
Nov
Dec
2026
3.50–3.75%
3.50–3.75%
92%
92%
4.00–4.25%
4.00–4.25%
26%
26%
3.75–4.00%
3.75–4.00%
8%
8%
3.25–3.50%
3.25–3.50%
0%
0%
