ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Fed target range
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 19 August 2026
Markets put
72%
odds on the Fed target range staying at
3.50–3.75%
.
Choose meeting
‹
17 Sep 25
−25 bp
29 Oct 25
−25 bp
10 Dec 25
−25 bp
28 Jan 26
3.50–3.75% · 96%
18 Mar 26
3.50–3.75% · 98%
29 Apr 26
3.50–3.75% · 100%
17 Jun 26
3.50–3.75% · 96%
29 Jul 26
3.50–3.75% · 69%
today
16 Sep 26
3.50–3.75% · 72%
28 Oct 26
3.50–3.75% · 59%
9 Dec 26
3.75–4.00% · 45%
27 Jan 27
3.75–4.00% · 44%
17 Mar 27
3.75–4.00% · 40%
28 Apr 27
3.75–4.00% · 38%
9 Jun 27
3.75–4.00% · 37%
28 Jul 27
3.75–4.00% · 36%
15 Sep 27
3.75–4.00% · 35%
all dates →
›
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Previous session (18 Aug 26): 66% — 3.50–3.75%
66%
Now (19 Aug 26): 72% — 3.50–3.75%
72%
3.50–3.75%
Previous session (18 Aug 26): 34% — 3.75–4.00%
34%
Now (19 Aug 26): 28% — 3.75–4.00%
28%
3.75–4.00%
Previous session (18 Aug 26)
Now (19 Aug 26)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.50–3.75%
3.50–3.75%
72%
72%
3.75–4.00%
3.75–4.00%
28%
28%
