Overview Meeting details Fed target range Rate path Forecast vs. realityData as of 5 October 2026

The day before, markets priced 93% for a hike to 3.75–4.00%. The Fed hiked to 3.75–4.00%.

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17 Sep 25−25 bp 29 Oct 25−25 bp 10 Dec 25−25 bp 28 Jan 26hold 18 Mar 26hold 29 Apr 26hold 17 Jun 26hold 29 Jul 26hold16 Sep 26+25 bptoday28 Oct 263.75–4.00% · 79%9 Dec 264.00–4.25% · 67%27 Jan 274.00–4.25% · 47%17 Mar 274.25–4.50% · 44%28 Apr 274.50–4.75% · 35%9 Jun 274.50–4.75% · 35%28 Jul 274.50–4.75% · 33%15 Sep 274.50–4.75% · 31%27 Oct 274.50–4.75% · 30%8 Dec 274.50–4.75% · 30%all dates →

How the expectation has shifted

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.

25bp is an independent information service and is not affiliated with the Federal Reserve. The probabilities shown are market expectations, neither forecasts nor investment advice.

Imprint Privacy Meeting dates Methodology Data as of 5 October 2026