ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Fed target range
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 19 August 2026
The day before, markets priced
98%
for a hold. The decision will appear here once the Fed’s FRED series shows it.
Choose meeting
‹
30 Jul 25
hold
17 Sep 25
−25 bp
29 Oct 25
−25 bp
10 Dec 25
−25 bp
28 Jan 26
3.50–3.75% · 96%
18 Mar 26
3.50–3.75% · 98%
29 Apr 26
3.50–3.75% · 100%
17 Jun 26
3.50–3.75% · 96%
29 Jul 26
3.50–3.75% · 69%
today
16 Sep 26
3.50–3.75% · 72%
28 Oct 26
3.50–3.75% · 59%
9 Dec 26
3.75–4.00% · 45%
27 Jan 27
3.75–4.00% · 44%
17 Mar 27
3.75–4.00% · 40%
28 Apr 27
3.75–4.00% · 38%
9 Jun 27
3.75–4.00% · 37%
28 Jul 27
3.75–4.00% · 36%
15 Sep 27
3.75–4.00% · 35%
all dates →
›
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1 month earlier (17 Feb 26): 10% — 3.25–3.50%
10%
1 week earlier (10 Mar 26): 1% — 3.25–3.50%
day before meeting (17 Mar 26): 2% — 3.25–3.50%
3.25–3.50%
1 month earlier (17 Feb 26): 90% — 3.50–3.75%
90%
1 week earlier (10 Mar 26): 99% — 3.50–3.75%
99%
day before meeting (17 Mar 26): 98% — 3.50–3.75%
98%
3.50–3.75%
1 month earlier (17 Feb 26)
1 week earlier (10 Mar 26)
day before meeting (17 Mar 26)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2026
Feb
Mar
3.50–3.75%
3.50–3.75%
98%
98%
3.25–3.50%
3.25–3.50%
2%
2%
3.00–3.25%
3.00–3.25%
1%
1%
