25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

The day before, markets priced 69% for a hold. The decision will appear here once the Fed’s FRED series shows it.

How the expectation has shifted

0%25%50%75%100%3 months earlier (28 Apr 26): 8% — 3.25–3.50%8%3.25–3.50%3 months earlier (28 Apr 26): 91% — 3.50–3.75%91%1 month earlier (26 Jun 26): 70% — 3.50–3.75%70%1 week earlier (21 Jul 26): 74% — 3.50–3.75%74%day before meeting (28 Jul 26): 69% — 3.50–3.75%69%3.50–3.75%1 month earlier (26 Jun 26): 30% — 3.75–4.00%30%1 week earlier (21 Jul 26): 26% — 3.75–4.00%26%day before meeting (28 Jul 26): 31% — 3.75–4.00%31%3.75–4.00%3 months earlier (28 Apr 26)1 month earlier (26 Jun 26)1 week earlier (21 Jul 26)day before meeting (28 Jul 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%JunJul3.50–3.75%3.50–3.75%69%69%3.75–4.00%3.75–4.00%31%31%3.25–3.50%3.25–3.50%4%4%