25bp
ECBFed
DEEN

The day before, markets priced 100% for a hold. The decision will appear here once the Fed’s FRED series shows it.

How the expectation has shifted

0%25%50%75%100%3 months earlier (28 Jan 26): 2% — 3.00–3.25%3.00–3.25%3 months earlier (28 Jan 26): 25% — 3.25–3.50%25%3.25–3.50%3 months earlier (28 Jan 26): 73% — 3.50–3.75%73%1 month earlier (27 Mar 26): 96% — 3.50–3.75%96%1 week earlier (21 Apr 26): 100% — 3.50–3.75%100%day before meeting (28 Apr 26): 100% — 3.50–3.75%100%3.50–3.75%1 month earlier (27 Mar 26): 4% — 3.75–4.00%3.75–4.00%3 months earlier (28 Jan 26)1 month earlier (27 Mar 26)1 week earlier (21 Apr 26)day before meeting (28 Apr 26)

Probabilities over time

Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.

0%25%50%75%100%MarApr3.50–3.75%3.50–3.75%100%100%3.25–3.50%3.25–3.50%4%4%3.75–4.00%3.75–4.00%1%1%3.00–3.25%3.00–3.25%0%0%