ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Fed target range
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 19 August 2026
The day before, markets priced
95%
for a hold. The Fed held.
Choose meeting
‹
31 Jul 24
hold
17 Sep 25
−25 bp
29 Oct 25
−25 bp
10 Dec 25
−25 bp
28 Jan 26
3.50–3.75% · 96%
18 Mar 26
3.50–3.75% · 98%
29 Apr 26
3.50–3.75% · 100%
17 Jun 26
3.50–3.75% · 96%
29 Jul 26
3.50–3.75% · 69%
today
16 Sep 26
3.50–3.75% · 72%
28 Oct 26
3.50–3.75% · 59%
9 Dec 26
3.75–4.00% · 45%
27 Jan 27
3.75–4.00% · 44%
17 Mar 27
3.75–4.00% · 40%
28 Apr 27
3.75–4.00% · 38%
9 Jun 27
3.75–4.00% · 37%
28 Jul 27
3.75–4.00% · 36%
15 Sep 27
3.75–4.00% · 35%
all dates →
›
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1 month earlier (28 Jun 24): 10% — 5.00–5.25%
10%
1 week earlier (23 Jul 24): 4% — 5.00–5.25%
day before meeting (30 Jul 24): 5% — 5.00–5.25%
5.00–5.25%
1 month earlier (28 Jun 24): 90% — 5.25–5.50%
90%
1 week earlier (23 Jul 24): 96% — 5.25–5.50%
96%
day before meeting (30 Jul 24): 95% — 5.25–5.50%
95%
5.25–5.50%
1 month earlier (28 Jun 24)
1 week earlier (23 Jul 24)
day before meeting (30 Jul 24)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
no change
no change
Jun
Jul
Aug
5.25–5.50%
5.25–5.50%
95%
95%
5.00–5.25%
5.00–5.25%
5%
5%
