ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Fed target range
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 5 October 2026
The day before, markets priced
68%
for a cut to 4.75–5.00%. The Fed cut to 4.75–5.00%.
Choose meeting
‹
18 Sep 24
−50 bp
29 Oct 25
−25 bp
10 Dec 25
−25 bp
28 Jan 26
hold
18 Mar 26
hold
29 Apr 26
hold
17 Jun 26
hold
29 Jul 26
hold
16 Sep 26
+25 bp
today
28 Oct 26
3.75–4.00% · 79%
9 Dec 26
4.00–4.25% · 67%
27 Jan 27
4.00–4.25% · 47%
17 Mar 27
4.25–4.50% · 44%
28 Apr 27
4.50–4.75% · 35%
9 Jun 27
4.50–4.75% · 35%
28 Jul 27
4.50–4.75% · 33%
15 Sep 27
4.50–4.75% · 31%
27 Oct 27
4.50–4.75% · 30%
8 Dec 27
4.50–4.75% · 30%
all dates →
›
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1 month earlier (16 Aug 24): 25% — 4.75–5.00%
1 week earlier (10 Sep 24): 37% — 4.75–5.00%
day before meeting (17 Sep 24): 68% — 4.75–5.00%
68%
4.75–5.00%
result
1 month earlier (16 Aug 24): 75% — 5.00–5.25%
1 week earlier (10 Sep 24): 63% — 5.00–5.25%
day before meeting (17 Sep 24): 32% — 5.00–5.25%
32%
5.00–5.25%
1 month earlier (16 Aug 24)
1 week earlier (10 Sep 24)
day before meeting (17 Sep 24)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
no change
−50 bp
Aug
Sep
Oct
4.75–5.00%
4.75–5.00%
97%
97%
result
5.00–5.25%
5.00–5.25%
32%
32%
5.25–5.50%
5.25–5.50%
5%
5%
4.50–4.75%
4.50–4.75%
3%
3%
