ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Fed target range
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 19 August 2026
The day before, markets priced
99%
for a cut to 4.50–4.75%. The Fed cut to 4.50–4.75%.
Choose meeting
‹
7 Nov 24
−25 bp
17 Sep 25
−25 bp
29 Oct 25
−25 bp
10 Dec 25
−25 bp
28 Jan 26
3.50–3.75% · 96%
18 Mar 26
3.50–3.75% · 98%
29 Apr 26
3.50–3.75% · 100%
17 Jun 26
3.50–3.75% · 96%
29 Jul 26
3.50–3.75% · 69%
today
16 Sep 26
3.50–3.75% · 72%
28 Oct 26
3.50–3.75% · 59%
9 Dec 26
3.75–4.00% · 45%
27 Jan 27
3.75–4.00% · 44%
17 Mar 27
3.75–4.00% · 40%
28 Apr 27
3.75–4.00% · 38%
9 Jun 27
3.75–4.00% · 37%
28 Jul 27
3.75–4.00% · 36%
15 Sep 27
3.75–4.00% · 35%
all dates →
›
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.25–4.50%
1 month earlier (4 Oct 24): 100% — 4.50–4.75%
100%
1 week earlier (30 Oct 24): 94% — 4.50–4.75%
94%
day before meeting (6 Nov 24): 99% — 4.50–4.75%
99%
4.50–4.75%
1 week earlier (30 Oct 24): 6% — 4.75–5.00%
day before meeting (6 Nov 24): 1% — 4.75–5.00%
4.75–5.00%
1 month earlier (4 Oct 24)
1 week earlier (30 Oct 24)
day before meeting (6 Nov 24)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
−50 bp
−25 bp
Oct
Nov
4.50–4.75%
4.50–4.75%
99%
99%
5.00–5.25%
5.00–5.25%
64%
64%
4.25–4.50%
4.25–4.50%
9%
9%
4.75–5.00%
4.75–5.00%
1%
1%
