ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Fed target range
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 19 August 2026
The day before, markets priced
100%
for a hold. The Fed held.
Choose meeting
‹
19 Mar 25
hold
17 Sep 25
−25 bp
29 Oct 25
−25 bp
10 Dec 25
−25 bp
28 Jan 26
3.50–3.75% · 96%
18 Mar 26
3.50–3.75% · 98%
29 Apr 26
3.50–3.75% · 100%
17 Jun 26
3.50–3.75% · 96%
29 Jul 26
3.50–3.75% · 69%
today
16 Sep 26
3.50–3.75% · 72%
28 Oct 26
3.50–3.75% · 59%
9 Dec 26
3.75–4.00% · 45%
27 Jan 27
3.75–4.00% · 44%
17 Mar 27
3.75–4.00% · 40%
28 Apr 27
3.75–4.00% · 38%
9 Jun 27
3.75–4.00% · 37%
28 Jul 27
3.75–4.00% · 36%
15 Sep 27
3.75–4.00% · 35%
all dates →
›
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3 months earlier (18 Dec 24): 2% — 4.00–4.25%
1 month earlier (18 Feb 25): 3% — 4.00–4.25%
1 week earlier (11 Mar 25): 5% — 4.00–4.25%
4.00–4.25%
3 months earlier (18 Dec 24): 38% — 4.25–4.50%
38%
1 month earlier (18 Feb 25): 97% — 4.25–4.50%
97%
1 week earlier (11 Mar 25): 95% — 4.25–4.50%
95%
day before meeting (18 Mar 25): 100% — 4.25–4.50%
100%
4.25–4.50%
3 months earlier (18 Dec 24): 60% — 4.50–4.75%
60%
4.50–4.75%
3 months earlier (18 Dec 24)
1 month earlier (18 Feb 25)
1 week earlier (11 Mar 25)
day before meeting (18 Mar 25)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
no change
no change
2025
Feb
Mar
4.25–4.50%
4.25–4.50%
100%
100%
4.00–4.25%
4.00–4.25%
2%
2%
3.75–4.00%
3.75–4.00%
1%
1%
