ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Fed target range
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 5 October 2026
The day before, markets priced
95%
for a hold. The Fed held.
Choose meeting
‹
7 May 25
hold
29 Oct 25
−25 bp
10 Dec 25
−25 bp
28 Jan 26
hold
18 Mar 26
hold
29 Apr 26
hold
17 Jun 26
hold
29 Jul 26
hold
16 Sep 26
+25 bp
today
28 Oct 26
3.75–4.00% · 79%
9 Dec 26
4.00–4.25% · 67%
27 Jan 27
4.00–4.25% · 47%
17 Mar 27
4.25–4.50% · 44%
28 Apr 27
4.50–4.75% · 35%
9 Jun 27
4.50–4.75% · 35%
28 Jul 27
4.50–4.75% · 33%
15 Sep 27
4.50–4.75% · 31%
27 Oct 27
4.50–4.75% · 30%
8 Dec 27
4.50–4.75% · 30%
all dates →
›
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1 month earlier (4 Apr 25): 36% — 4.00–4.25%
1 week earlier (29 Apr 25): 12% — 4.00–4.25%
day before meeting (6 May 25): 5% — 4.00–4.25%
4.00–4.25%
1 month earlier (4 Apr 25): 64% — 4.25–4.50%
1 week earlier (29 Apr 25): 88% — 4.25–4.50%
day before meeting (6 May 25): 95% — 4.25–4.50%
95%
4.25–4.50%
result
1 month earlier (4 Apr 25)
1 week earlier (29 Apr 25)
day before meeting (6 May 25)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
no change
no change
Apr
May
4.25–4.50%
4.25–4.50%
95%
95%
result
4.00–4.25%
4.00–4.25%
5%
5%
3.75–4.00%
3.75–4.00%
0%
0%
