ECB
Fed
DE
EN
Overview
Meeting details
Fed target range
Rate path
Forecast vs. reality
Data as of 5 October 2026
The day before, markets priced
97%
for a hold. The Fed held.
Choose meeting
‹
18 Jun 25
hold
29 Oct 25
−25 bp
10 Dec 25
−25 bp
28 Jan 26
hold
18 Mar 26
hold
29 Apr 26
hold
17 Jun 26
hold
29 Jul 26
hold
16 Sep 26
+25 bp
today
28 Oct 26
3.75–4.00% · 79%
9 Dec 26
4.00–4.25% · 67%
27 Jan 27
4.00–4.25% · 47%
17 Mar 27
4.25–4.50% · 44%
28 Apr 27
4.50–4.75% · 35%
9 Jun 27
4.50–4.75% · 35%
28 Jul 27
4.50–4.75% · 33%
15 Sep 27
4.50–4.75% · 31%
27 Oct 27
4.50–4.75% · 30%
8 Dec 27
4.50–4.75% · 30%
all dates →
›
How the expectation has shifted
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3 months earlier (17 Mar 25): 14% — 3.75–4.00%
3.75–4.00%
3 months earlier (17 Mar 25): 54% — 4.00–4.25%
1 month earlier (16 May 25): 9% — 4.00–4.25%
1 week earlier (10 Jun 25): 3% — 4.00–4.25%
day before meeting (17 Jun 25): 3% — 4.00–4.25%
4.00–4.25%
3 months earlier (17 Mar 25): 32% — 4.25–4.50%
1 month earlier (16 May 25): 91% — 4.25–4.50%
1 week earlier (10 Jun 25): 97% — 4.25–4.50%
day before meeting (17 Jun 25): 97% — 4.25–4.50%
97%
4.25–4.50%
result
3 months earlier (17 Mar 25)
1 month earlier (16 May 25)
1 week earlier (10 Jun 25)
day before meeting (17 Jun 25)
Probabilities over time
Vertical lines mark Fed rate decisions.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
no change
no change
May
Jun
Jul
4.25–4.50%
4.25–4.50%
97%
97%
result
3.50–3.75%
3.50–3.75%
5%
5%
4.00–4.25%
4.00–4.25%
3%
3%
3.75–4.00%
3.75–4.00%
1%
1%
